Introduction
It is an attempt to look at the economic aspect of the U.S. - China relations from the Chinese perspective. This approach can provide interesting insights into the most important economic axis of economic interdependence in the modern world, and generate innovative ideas on how to access the existing and future problems.
Theoretical background
The modern phase of US-Chinese relations are characterized by a high degree of economic interdependence can be analyzed from a realist perspective. Henry Kissinger was working towards a classic "realist" balance of power arrangements seeking closer relations with China to counter Soviet influence in Asia after the Vietnam War. The Dr. Kissinger to Nixon's own words are "had ideas for building peace on a global scale." Therefore, it might be argued from a constructivist perspective that this is a classic 'realist' foreign policy act created a reality that will develop into a major phenomenon of modern economic policy interdependence between the world's leading liberal free market democracy, and specifically the last communist države.Impresivan increase economic exchanges between the two countries, the reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979 led to the current situation in which they dominate world trade and global economic stability depends on the successful razvoju.Upravljanje these relationships and mutual political and security implications require skilled economic statecraft to solve problems related to stem from unmatched extent of economic interdependence and structural differences between the communist rule of the economies in transition to a free market in the case of China and the economy is in transition from "laissez-faire" principles of the Reagan era of increasing calls for more regulation, after the global financial crisis 2008th
historical context
The relationship between the U.S. and China began to develop uu new direction, after Henry Kissinger approached the economic relations between China and picked up especially after the reforms Deng Xio Ping in 1979. Trade with the United States has helped China achieve dramatic success in improving quality of life of the most populous country in the world. Chinese political life is advanced by more openness, democracy and accountability and the protection of private property is a chance for a prosperous middle class to emerge. At the same time China is still a communist country ruled by the Communist Party, which is far from even the concept of something similar to Gorbachev's perestroika, let alone more comprehensive political reformi.Izvanredan economic development was accompanied by extensive environmental damage. Some of the new rich have earned their wealth through corruption and lack of an effective justice system to solve the problem is partly due to CCP's political opposition reformi.Sredstava for the life of a large portion of the population, although better than the starving population of sub-Saharan Africa is still uncertain near the border siromaštva.Gospodarskog development based on cheap labor and still show signs of success in the more technologically advanced areas such as Japan and the Asian tigers have done.
The U.S. approach to China is in the range from a desire to ensure good relations to alleviate the security threats in the 70's through the early period of growth of economic relations that began with the Deng reforms and culminated in China receive a first place among U.S. trading partners and the world wide importance of water in the U.S. uncertainty of how to treat China: as a rival, an ally of controversial or difficult partner to deal with, but it is impossible to refuse.
Floating exchange for Chinese currency rage.
The Chinese government has strongly resisted international pressure led the U.S. to float the Chinese valute.Kinezi complain that now after the financial crisis is not a problem rate of its currency, but the value of the dollar, or more accurate values, but the stability of the dollar which is dependent on stability of American politike.Iznad conclusion Wang Qing, an economist from Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong to the U.S. government responsible for the course linking their stability to the stability of the policy. Although the connection between politics and currency values can be set to not to directly. There was no apparent change in policy when the financial crisis hit in recent days the Bush administration. This is more of the adequacy of certain policies that may affect the exchange rate. In any case, the large Chinese trade surplus is materialized in U.S. dollars, mainly in the form of Treasury bonds.
"We have lent a large sum of money in the U.S., of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried." The problem is that the Chinese can not make big sale of U.S. treasury bonds because it will lead to their price will fall. But even if they keep them massive U.S. subsidies will mean the U.S. government sells more bonds and the market may demand higher interest rates for them than the interest rates on Chinese bonds hold. This will result in a scenario of falling prices of bonds holding the Chinese. Alternatively, if the U.S. government chose to restrict borrowing and encouragement can mean a slower recovery of the U.S. economy will hurt Chinese exports to the United States. The second scenario involves reducing the trade deficit the United States because of the crisis has resulted in fewer Chinese purchases of U.S. bonds. In any case, the financial crisis facing the Chinese leaders with severe dilema.Američki sees the solution in encouraging domestic potrošnje.Kineska Chinese government sees the solution in reducing its reliance on its reserves to the U.S. dollar and the dependence on U.S. financial policy beyond its control, by calling (with Russia ) for the establishment of an internationally managed reserve currency, which will increase the stability of global financial markets and have the added benefit of greater freedom for the financial policy of the reserve currency policy like the U.S., EU and Japan.
2 What China expects the U.S.
budget deficit control
After the financial crisis and the implementation of incentive measures of primary care in China is the U.S. government's resolve and ability to budget deficit under control. From the perspective of China's national interest in their ability to deal with the negative effects of the global financial crisis depends on the value of their national reserves, which is dependent on U.S. policy. Commentators speculate on whether China will continue buying U.S. securities, thus financing the U.S. government potrošnje.Očigledan answer is yes, because there is no substitute for U.S. government bonds in terms of safe investments, even when taking into account all the pitfalls of using them as financial instruments rezervat.Logična an improvement in the trade balance between China and the United States will be that China will buy fewer U.S. securities because they will have less free funds used to purchase the bonds, but will use the money to profit from exports to the U.S. to pay for imports instead. To conclude, if China is financially viable option to switch to other reserves, a safe haven such as the IMF special drawing rights, or that the euro would do and they will not hesitate to do so if it becomes viable in the future. Current calculations even though the U.S. dollar attractive despite the contradictory position serves as an international currency, but held under U.S. national control. China will continue to maintain its national reserves in U.S. dollars and try to influence the American government to continue a policy that will prevent the dollar from losing value.
free trade not protectionism
The second most important economic statecraft policy question that China wants to see a positive outcome in their relations with the United States that the administration will go about dealing with protectionist pressures in Congress. China is understandably suspicious the real U.S. intentions. On the one hand, we have determined the statements of President Obama at the G20 meeting a few warning against the dangers of protectionism and other controversial imposition of tariffs on imported tires from China.
New U.S. financial regulation to prevent crises
China is concerned with the negative impact of the current financial crisis that has exposed their economic vulnerability to events beyond their control. Understandably, China wants to see better regulation to ensure the smooth functioning and predictability of the U.S. financial system of world trade depends on health.
The increased role of China in the IMF
At the 20th meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund in Istanbul Deputy Governor Central Bank of China Yi Gang point for higher quotas for developing countries and better tracking abilities zaMeđunarodni Monetary Fund. He blamed the IMF for not foresee the global financial crisis and blames this failure on poor management resulting from the distorted representation in the IMF governing bodies. This is a valid complaint, such as the Chinese have done what is expected of them: efficiently produced goods for export and financial collapse adversely affect them, without warning. That the IMF has required structural and administrative reforms, including revision of quotas admitted supported by the U.S. government.
recognizing China as a market economy.
Recognition of China as a market economy affects the way the fair market value of the goods calculated to determine whether the country is participating in the subsidy or dumping. As China is not recognized as a market economy by major trading partners, U.S. and EU may be easier to apply sanctions against China in the latter case, U.S. tariffs on imported tires from China. Theoretically, the question has two strane.Prvi can China be considered a market economy? Prevalence of state-owned enterprises and the strict control of the national currency credits towards a negative answer. On the other hand, a significant development of China to establish an effective enterprise, including private ones successfully working on increasing export capacity points to the conclusion that China is making considerable efforts to implent sustav.Rezultati latest market-driven China -. American strategic dialogue shows that there are no insurmountable obstacles on the way to the U.S. recognition of China's market economy status, which will realize sooner or later, depending on the political situation in both countries
While the official Chinese policy can deal with the continuing dominance of the Communist Party and the Marxist ideology of the Russian (and Yugoslavia), experience shows that the true interests of the ruling elite may be more material than ideological alignment to maintain their economic moći.Metastaza corruption feed China's economic boom points int that direction Bearing this in mind, three scenarios can be discerned for the future development Kine.Najpoželjniji, but perhaps not likely to be gradual political development of Chinese society to democracy after the consolidation of market principles in gospodarstvu.Najopasniji will slip backwards under the pressure of economic coercion and oppression in the pugnacity of Mao ere.Najvjerojatniji although it will be a collapse of the Communist Party and the transfer of power in the hands of corrupt officials and mafia like structures. The U.S. initiative for democratic reform in China can diffuse the danger of chaotic collapse of communism and the significant security implications that may result. Finally we can conclude that there is a convergence of interests between the Chinese Communist Party, businesses and people in China and that leads to peaceful economic development as a way to solve all the problems facing modern China. This position may find understanding in the U.S. and the rest of the world as it is consistent with long-term interests of all countries interested in developing economic relations with China on a win-win basis.